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16.03.2010

Long term forecast for Nordkapp (Jan Mayen)

Updated at 18:58. Next update is expected around 22:20.

The meteorologist’s forecast (in Norwegian)

Havområdene D1, D2 Tuesday and Wednesday: Frisk bris av skiftende retning, fra onsdag ettermiddag nordaustlig frisk bris. Sluddbyger med dårlig sikt.

Can the forecast be trusted?

The long term forecasts shows the most predictable weather information. Each forecasted element, the weather symbol, temperature, and wind, is individually marked by a colour which indicates how certain it is.

  • Rather certain
  • Somewhat uncertain
  • Uncertain

Tomorrow
17/03/2010

Partly cloudy -7° Light breeze, 3 m/s from northeast
Somewhat uncertain
Rather certain
Somewhat uncertain

Partly cloudy. Light breeze, 3 m/s from northeast. 1.0 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Thursday
18/03/2010

Snow -3° Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north
Somewhat uncertain
Rather certain
Uncertain

Snow. Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from north. 13 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Friday
19/03/2010

Snow -5° Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from north
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain

Snow. Fresh breeze, 9 m/s from north. 1.1 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Saturday
20/03/2010

Snow -7° Strong breeze, 13 m/s from northwest
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain

Snow. Strong breeze, 13 m/s from northwest. 2.0 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Sunday
21/03/2010

Snow -5° Strong breeze, 12 m/s from north-northwest
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain
Uncertain

Snow. Strong breeze, 12 m/s from north-northwest. 2.3 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Monday
22/03/2010

Snow -3° Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from north
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain
Uncertain

Snow. Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from north. 1.5 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Tuesday
23/03/2010

Cloudy -4° Fresh breeze, 8 m/s from north-northwest
Somewhat uncertain
Somewhat uncertain
Uncertain

Cloudy. Fresh breeze, 8 m/s from north-northwest. 1.2 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Wednesday
24/03/2010

Snow -4° Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from north-northwest
Somewhat uncertain
Uncertain
Uncertain

Snow. Fresh breeze, 10 m/s from north-northwest. 0.9 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

Thursday
25/03/2010

Cloudy -4° Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from west
Somewhat uncertain
Uncertain
Uncertain

Cloudy. Moderate breeze, 7 m/s from west. 0.5 mm precipitation per 24 hours.

The temperature and wind forecasts are valid for 12 noon, the symbol for 12 noon to 6 pm. Forecasts for the morning, evening and night are available in the detailed long term forecast.

Background, facts and advice on how to use the long term forecasts (in Norwegian).

Probability forecast

The long term forecast in the table above contains the most predictable weather information, and how certain we are that the forecast is correct.

The probability forecast in the diagram below indicates the probabilities for different possible developments of the temperature and precipitation. The long term forecast is given by black lines.

The grey fields (for temperature) and the blue fields (for precipitation) indicate the range of possible weather developments which are predominantly probable (80 percent). The width of the fields ir proportional to the degree of uncertainty of the forecast.

Within these fields, it is considered most probable (50 percent) that the development hits the dark part. Still it is somewhat probable (30 percent) that it hits the lighter part outside the dark.

Tips, advice and facts about the probability forecast (in Norwegian).

What is the probability for different weather?

The long term forecast (from the above table) is indicated with a black line.

  • Temperature:
  • 50 % probability
  • 30 % probability
  • Precipitation:
  • 50 % probability
  • 30 % probability
Probability forecast for Nordkapp (Jan Mayen) Saturday: Highs probably between -8,1° C and -4,0° C. Lows between -8,9° and -5,3°.	Sunday: Highs probably between -6,3° C and -1,1° C. Lows between -7,9° and -2,1°.	Monday: Highs probably between -6,3° C and -1,0° C. Lows between -6,1° and -1,1°.	Tuesday: Highs probably between -6,3° C and -1,1° C. Lows between -6,4° and -0,9°.	Wednesday: Highs probably between -6,6° C and -0,8° C. Lows between -7,4° and -1,0°.	Thursday: Highs probably between -7,1° C and -0,8° C. Lows between -6,9° and -0,5°.	Saturday 00–06: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb5] Saturday 06–12: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb5] Saturday 12–18: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb5] Saturday 18–24: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb5] Sunday 00–06: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb5] Sunday 06–12: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb5] Sunday 12–18: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Sunday 18–24: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Monday 00–06: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Monday 06–12: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Monday 12–18: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Monday 18–24: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Tuesday 00–06: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb2] Tuesday 06–12: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb2] Tuesday 12–18: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb2] Tuesday 18–24: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Wednesday 00–06: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Wednesday 06–12: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Wednesday 12–18: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb2] Wednesday 18–24: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Thursday 00–06: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Thursday 06–12: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb4] Thursday 12–18: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb2] Thursday 18–24: [eng:punkt/sannsyn:nedb2] [eng:punkt/sannsyn:forklaring]

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